The Meaning of Buffy

My first experience of Buffy the Vampire Slayer was when I caught the end of Season 3 in the United States in 1999, and then some of Season 4 when I was back there in 2000. I liked it, but never managed to fully catch up with the plot and characters, and when I came back to New Zealand I wasn't motivated enough to stay in touch with the show as it made its delayed appearance here.

That's all changed, thanks to the DVD collection of my Joss Whedon-fanatic flatmate Noam. After getting Simon and I hooked with the 14 espiodes of the excellent, cruelly cancelled sci-fi/western Firefly, Noam convinced us to dip our toes in the Buffyverse, starting with Season 1, episode 1.

Seven seasons and 145 episodes later, I'm a confirmed Buffy fan and addict, teetering on the border of geekdom. Here's my take on the ups and downs of the series.

After setting the tone with Season 1's breezy, amateurish first twelve episodes, Buffy reached its peak in the classic second and third seasons. If these represent High Buffy, Season 4 is a baroque but enjoyable, and in my view underrated, follow through. Season 5 has one of the strongest narrative arcs of any season, and an extraordinary climax that would have made a fitting end to the series had it been discontinued, as thought possible at the time.

Then to the 'difficult' season six -- which has its passionate defenders, but which I found often slow and painful. Season 7 started out like a return to the lighter spirit of Season 1, but lost its way in mid season and wrapped things up too quickly in the last few episodes. By then I was becoming occasionally frustrated at what I saw as poor decisions and a loss of concentration by the writers -- a sure sign that geekdom is at hand.

This is my ranking of the seven seasons:

1. Season Three
2. Season Two
3. Season Five
4. Season Four
5. Season One
6. season Seven
7. Season Six

So to the long-winded ruminations on theme. Buffy is best known for making a literal conceit out of the idea that 'school is hell' and at the most obvious level is a meditation on growing up.

It's an understatement to say there's a lot more going on. Coming along at just the right time for the Cultural Studies crowd, few TV shows have inspired as much attention from academics. At least six or seven Buffy-inspired books have been published, ranging in genre from philosophy to self-help. There are academic conferences, and even a periodical run by serious scholars, Slayage: the Online Journal of Buffy Studies.

Along with the obvious messages about female empowerment, Whedon and his co-creators send nods and winks in the direction of Marx, Nietzsche, Freud and Jung, and there's enough intertextuality to keep a literary theorist happy for a lifetime. The show can be interpreted as rampantly pagan or profoundly Christian and has been claimed by just about every point on the political spectrum.

A lot of this is just gleeful pastiche by the writing team. The intertextual references derive mainly from Whedon's own geekish fandom towards popular culture.

But there is a serious core that runs through the series. For me, Buffy is at root about the ongoing struggle to create a moral self out of unreliable raw material. It's portayals of selfhood, morality and freedom are sophisticated, challenging, and at time provocative.

What sets Buffy apart is its subversion of the normal expectations about narrative and character. Most fiction -- especially on TV -- is carried along by stable personalities making largely predictable choices. In the Buffyverse, things are a lot more complicated. For one thing, the Greek version of Fate is an active force . It cannot be changed, although its meaning is not always what it seems.

More interesting, though, is the show's unflinching engagement with postmodern and post-scientific deconstructions of the individual into a vehicle for competing biological and cultural agendas.

The presence of magic is the key means by which these sub-personal forces are explored. Under the influence of spells, charms and curses, characters' behaviour becomes unpredictable and transgressive. Beliefs, desires, abilities, sexual attraction, self-control and even sanity are up for grabs, and no character is spared from committing acts that leave them with shame or remorse.

Yet while these transformations are largely beyond the conscious control of individual characters, the experiences are remembered and become part of their personal histories (unlike, say, in Shakespearean comedy). Bumbling Xander's magical conversion into an elite soldier in an early episode leaves him with partly-controllable abilities that return to him in moments of crisis. Willow's encounter with her vampire doppelganger in Season 2 prefigures some of the latent elements of her character that will emerge later in the series. A crucial moment is during Season 3 when 'good vampire' Angel perfectly imitates his 'soulless' alter ego Angelus in order to set a trap for rogue slayer Faith. His ability to be so convincing forces Buffy into the discomforting recognition that Angel and Angelus are in some way part of the same being, not two entirely separate entities inhabiting the same body.

The show is also daring in its recognition of the importance of physical bodies, and other people's response to them, as determinants of character and identity. Spike's long road to redemption is an internal, personal one, but unthinkable without the chip placed in his head by the Initiative that physically prevents him from causing harm to humans. In a rather disturbing scene in Season 6, Dawn snuggles up with the lifeless, battery-powered Buffybot, drawing comfort from its resemblance to her (at that point) dead sister.

There's a monumental episode in Season 4, when Buffy and Faith swap bodies and Faith's attempt to 'own' Buffy's body by mimicking her speech and actions leads her to actually become more like Buffy. One of my favourite scenes in the whole series sees Faith, who has just taken over Buffy's body, standing in front of a mirror, making pious faces and practising saying: 'Because it's wrong'. At the climax of the episode, when she abandons her getaway to rescue a group of people trapped by vampires in a church, she utters the same phrase with a straight face.

So, Buffy is unusally radical in its recognition of the fragility of the self, the compromised nature of free will, and the non-moral bases of morality. Yet it makes clear that holding oneself together remains the fundamental human task. Moral freedom lies in the ability to evaluate one's strengths, weaknesses, and flaws, and decide what to make of them.

By this rationale, others are not be judged by whether their 'nature' is benign or monstruous, or even what they might have done, but whether there is hope that they might do other than evil (for most of Seasons 4, 5 and 6, the characters grudgingly suffer the presence of Spike because, however soulless, with his chip implanted he is harmless).

For most of its course, the show is pretty clear that you can't expect to definitively win the struggle -- those vampires always keep rising. But you can, as Buffy does, keep fighting the 'demons and the forces of darkness', day in, day out. And hopefully maintain some dignity and decency along the way.

Dark and disturbing as it often is, Buffy ultimately has a humanistic, and optimistic message. Although there will always be times when people will fail to keep a lid on their darker sides, this doesn't undermine the possibility of making things better. And as many have commented, the real glue that holds people's souls together is friendship (romantic love is at best an ambivalent force).

In another one of my favourite scenes, a monk who has been beaten to near-death by the hell-god Glory explains to Buffy that her younger sister Dawn is actually the Key, a ball of magical energy turned into human form and sent to Buffy to protect (the memories of Buffy, her family and friends have been magically altered). Buffy says to the dying monk "She's not my sister?" The monk replies: "She is...innocent". It's not what you are or where you've come from that matters -- but who you can become.

Categories: Buffy the Vampire Slayer, Angel, Joss Whedon, Marti Noxon

Babies or Bombs?

The peace movement of the 60s and 70s had a slogan: 'Won't it be a great day when schools have all the money they need, and the air force has to run a cake stall to buy a bomber'.

These days, wits like to suggest that such a situation has come to pass in New Zealand -- except maybe for the bit about schools having the money they need.

Elsewhere, not a lot has changed. Slate's military writer Fred Kaplan discusses the budget requested by the Pentagon for the US military, a budget which for the 2008 financial year totals $500 billion, not including funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Allowing for inflation, this is larger than at any time since the Korean War, and is more than all other countries' defense budgets combined. And when you do throw in the wars, US military expenditure is more than the entire GDP of Australia.

Kaplan describes how consideration of the Defense Bill by Congress has been characterised by a lack of interest in cost-effectiveness, or even any sense of priorities. He explains that the near-identical amounts earmarked for the different services ($130.1 billion for the Army, $130.8 billion for the Navy/Marines and $ 136.6 billion for the Air Force) are not coincidental. Service budgets have been calibrated since the 1960s, in order to avoid internecine rivalries.

A conservative on the lookout for the self-serving bureaucratic empires of 'big government' might like to start here. If ever there were an example of Milton Friedman's dictum that agencies of the state will inevitably act in their self-interest, this looks like it.

Meanwhile, President Bush has vetoed a bill that has comfortable support in the House and Senate to extend the State Childrens Health Insurance Programme (S-CHIP) to 4 million more children of low-income families. This would cost approximately $7 billion per year. Bush objects on the grounds of cost and because such an extension could be a slippery slope to 'socialized medicine'.

Of course, socializing the costs of military hardware with no apparent purpose is still ok. So it'll be the same people running the cake stalls for a while yet.

The Inca and the Alpaca

In a small side room off the hot factory floor, women in blue smocks are intently picking apart bundles of brown fleece. Despite the cramped conditions it is, according to Incalpaca administator Adrian Corso, one of the preferred tasks for factory workers. The women are selecting the finest fibres from the coat of the vicuña, rare and beautiful animal that lives above 3,800 metres on the dramatic Peruvian altiplano.

Highly prized by the Incan nobility, the vicuña's wool is now worth about $500 USD per kilogram -- more valuable by weight than silver. Most of the best-quality fleece is concentrated in a small triangle on the animal's chest, which is shorn once every two years.

In the shop out front of Incalpaca's factory in Arequipa, a shawl made of the silkily fine vicuña fleece is housed in a glass case, like a precious jewel.

But if the vicuña brings the glamour, it's the chubbier, domesticated alpaca that provides most of the substance. Adrian takes us through the production process, as piles of alpaca wool are fed through Italian-made industrial machinery to be washed, heated, cooled and dried before being spun into fabric. From there it's turned into the coats, sweaters, scarfs, shawls and rugs that form the factory's output.

In the Peruvian sierra, zone of awe-inspiring scenery but also persistent poverty, Incalpaca is an economic success story. The South American camelids -- which include the llama and wild guanaco as well as the vicuña and alpaca -- have been interwoven with the Andes' human history for at least two thousand years, and still provide the main economic sustenance for many peasant communities living in the high mountains. Traditional Peruvian weaving in alpaca wool is renowned for its skill, colour and flair.

The outside world has also long recognised the value of the remarkably strong, warm and soft alpaca fibre. Cloth from alpaca was first successfully manufactured in the English town of Bradford in the 1830s, the wool having made its way from Spain via Germany and France. In the 1950s, Incalpaca's parent company Grupo Inca and its main rival in Arequipa, Michell, began the local processing of the raw wool. But it's only in the last 25 years that export-quality garments and rugs have been produced on an industrial scale in Peru.

Now, Incalpaca's Arequipa factory employs 1200, and sends 90 percent of its products to the United States, Europe and Japan. It's one of the industries likely to benefit most from the free trade agreement with the United States set to be ratified by the US congress by the end of October. Between 2001 and 2005, the value of Peru's textile exports doubled, to more than $1 billion USD. Incalpaca and Michell together contribute about $50 million to this total. Incalpaca's general manager Germán Freyre has estimated that a trade agreement with the US could boost sales by 15 percent.

Critics of the trade agreement have raised concerns about its potential to cause environmental damage and exploitation of labour. But compared to mining, which still dominates Peru's exports, the alpaca industry gets a pass on both counts. While the factory floor is hot, it's clean, and numerous colourful warning signs place a premium on safety. The workers, who are paid production bonuses in addition to the basic wage, are certainly better off than their unemployed compatriots who have to eke out a living driving taxis or selling in the street.

And as animals adapted to the harsh conditions of the altiplano, alpacas have an inherently low environmental impact. Incalpaca still sources some of its wool from the small communities that raise alpacas in the remote highlands. It also has its own animals in open ranches near Arequipa's airport and on the Pampas Cañahuas plateau at 4,000 metres, where tourists come to watch the vicuñas. Alpacas are sensitive animals that need plenty of care and attention, and 40 more staff are employed to look after them.

Pass through the international airports in Lima or Santiago in Chile, and Incalpaca's 'Alpaca 111' shops stand out, with their shelves full of fine fleeces in earthy colours. While the garments make a fine advertisment for the Peruvian heartland, most are in very classic, conservative styles. You can't help wondering what opportunities there are for integrating the alpaca's qualities and image with more youth-oriented fashion or sportswear. Young designers in Arequipa agree, and talk eagerly about developing their own more cutting-edge lines, something that will become easier as the country's trade links are strengthened.

In the 16th century, indigenous Peruvians led the world in textile design and production. Today, Peru is gradually carving out a high value economic niche based on rediscovery of its unique crafts, traditions, and environment. Its one industry that could help the country thrive in the global economy on its own terms.

Categories: Incalpaca, alpaca, vicuña, Arequipa, Peru, trade

New from the Daily Minion

'Martian Property Market Continues to Perform Above Expectations'

Bush Threatened Chile Over Iraq Vote

Spanish newspaper El Pais has published the transcript of a conversation between former Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, George Bush, and Condoleeza Rice at Bush's ranch in Crawford, Texas, four weeks before the invasion of Iraq in 2003. In the conversation Bush announced his intention to be in Baghdad "by the end of March" and also threatened to derail Chile's free trade agreement with the US if the Latin American nation did not back a planned second resolution on Iraq in the United Nations Security Council.

In the conversation, apparently recorded by then Spanish ambassador Javier Rupérez, Aznar asked Bush to help him secure domestic support for action against Iraq and stressed that "it's not the same to act without [the resolution] as with it". Bush assured him that "the text will be made as far as possible to help you. I'm pretty easy on the content". He told Aznar that: "Saddam Hussein is not disarming. We have to get him now...There's two weeks left. In two weeks we'll be militarily ready...We'll be in Baghdad by the end of March".

Discussing the level of Security Council support for a second resolution, Bush said that"countries like Mexico, Chile, Angola and Cameroon (temporary Council members at the time) should know that what's at stake is the security of the United States, and act with a sense of friendship towards us. [Chilean president Ricardo] Lagos should know that the free trade agreement with Chile is awaiting confirmation in the Senate and that a negative attitude in this matter could endanger its ratification".

Chilean newspaper La Nacion said that the story had been confirmed by current Chilean ambassador to the United Nations Heraldo Muñoz, who at the time was a government minister. Muñoz told a Chilean radio station that the account of threats to Chile suggested by the transcript "basically fit the truth". According to Muñoz, after "very serious discussion", the Chilean government concluded that its foreign policy of multilateralism and respecting international law could not be sacrificed.

Muñoz said that in the view of the Chilean government while there was “a certain risk for the TLC", it was decided to trust that "a lot had already been invested by the United States and ourselves in many rounds of negotiation and there weren't going to be backwards steps because if there wasn't a treaty with Chile, with which Latin American country would there be?".

The Chilean government thus agreed that "it was worth defending [our] longstanding foreign policy principles", said Muñoz.

The US-Chile free trade agreement was ratifed by the US Congress in the last week of July 2003.


Categories: Jose Maria Aznar, George Bush, iraq, Iraq, Chile, Security Council , second resolution

Carbon Trading in New Zealand

The New Zealand government last week announced its latest climate change policy aimed at reducing carbon emissions towards the levels agreed under the Kyoto Protocol. It's a cap-and-trade scheme, which will be phased in for different sectors. Forestry will be the first to participate from next year; transport and major industy enter in 2009 and 2010; while agriculture (responsible for about half New Zealand's emissions) will have no commitments until 2013.

Even with the emissions measures in place, New Zealand is predicted to overshoot its Kyoto carbon emissions targets for the 2008-12 period by about 25.5 million tonnes.

The best analysis is from blogger No Right Turn , who looks at some of the implications as well as identifying some gaps and omissions. There's also a link to the full government document, The Framework for a New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme. I guess at some point I'll be a good citizen and wade through it.

The Green Party and environmental groups such as Greenpeace criticised the announcement as too little too late, but the policy at least appears to have broad political support. Many of the proposals are similar to those in the 'Blue-Green' position paper released last year by the National Party -- who along with United Future and New Zealand First helped torpedo previous climate change measures such as a carbon tax and a 'fart tax' on animal methane emissions.

There are specific long-term targets for renewable energy and tree planting, as well as vaguer aspirational goals for things such as widespread use of electric cars.

Costs to the fuel and energy sectors are expected to be passed through to consumers, meaning an estimated 4-5% increase in petrol prices and power bills starting in 2009. The government has already promised that it will seek to compensate people on low incomes for these increased living costs.

Instead of further bureaucratically-managed subsidies, one option could be to cut tax from the first $5-10,000 of individuals' income. This is actually a Green party policy, but is also favoured by many economic liberals because it is simple, transparent and provides the right incentives. It removes tax from desirable things (earnings from work) and applies it to undesirable ones (emissions).

However, such an income tax cut is normally suggested as a tit-for-tat swap in conjunction with a carbon tax, rather than alongside a cap-and-trade scheme. Ironically, while some centre-rightists are now suggesting a carbon tax to be the most sensible anti-emissions measure, it is this part of the political spectrum which has consistently trashed the idea whenever it has been proposed.

Categories: climate change, New Zealand, Kyoto, carbon trading, carbon tax

Peruvian Communities Vote Against Mine

Peruvian news sources report on a highly-charged plebiscite in the sierra of Piura, northern Peru, where local communities voted overwhelmingly last Sunday against the development of a planned copper mine, which local farmers and environmentalists say could poison water sources and affect biodiversity in the region .

More than 90 percent of voters in the districts of Ayabaca, Pacaipampa and Carmen de la Frontera, voted against the plans of Chinese-owned company Minera Majaz to mine copper and molibdenum in a project known as Rio Blanco. Around 60 percent of 31,000 registered electors turned out across the three districts, some walking many hours to arrive at a polling station.

The vote, which was organised by the mayors of the three district municipalities, was criticised in advance by Peru's national government, which called it 'illegal' and 'non-binding'. Peru's electoral office (ONPE) and national election jury (JNE) had refused to recognise the plebiscite, and called for the confiscation of official electoral materials that were to be used in the vote.

But the vote went ahead peacefully, despite prior claims of threats against locals who do support the mine. International observers from Ecuador, Bolivia, Canada, Spain, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Switzerland attended.

Majaz Minera is a subsidiary of British company Monterrico Metals, which has recently been acquired by Chinese consortium Zijin. Exploratory work has been occurring in the region since 2002. Preliminary results from a study by the University of Texas suggest that this phase has already caused some damage to the region's biodiversity, which includes the Andean spectacled bear and highland tapir. Local farmers fear that mining operations will diminish the quantity and quality of rivers which irrigate both the western (Pacific) and eastern (Amazonian) slopes of the Andes. The latter is a notable coffee-exporting region.

The Peruvian government has claimed that the vote was promoted by 'anti-mining' NGOs, who along with foreign missionaries it blames for stirring up opposition to the mine. Prime Minister Jorge del Castillo said that 'people who oppose investment can't demand its benefits'. President Alan Garcia called anti-mining activists 'old communists' responsible for 'a conspiracy to stop the country growing and producing'.

But analysts say that opposition owes more to bad historical experiences with mining operations in Peru. They cite lack of direct benefit for mining regions, weak governmental regulatory capability, and a poor record of mining company environmental and labour practices.

Also, Peru doesn't have a Ministry for the Environment or independent environmental agency. The organisation responsible for assessing environmental impact reports for mining projects is the Ministry of Energy and Mining, which is also charged with attracting and promoting mining investment.

Del Castillo is now calling for dialogue between the government, mining company and local authorities. District mayors have said they would be happy to engage in dialogue but that it must include community leaders from the respective districts.

The mining company, whose public face until now has been its English spokesman Andrew Bristow, says it is also prepared to talk. But for now, local communities have had the final say.

Categories: mining, Rio Blanco, Peru, Majaz, Piura

Trade Agreement in the Final Stretch

After many doubts and delays, there's now a better-than-even chance that Peru's free trade agreement with the United States will be ratified in the near future. According to statements made by US officials to the Peruvian media, the House Ways and Means Committee is set to hold a hearing on the 25 September, after which the agreement would be voted on sometime in October.

Of the four trade deals negotiated by the US government before President Bush's 'fast track' authority expired in June, Peru's will be the first to go to a vote, and the most likely to be approved (the others are with Panama, Colombia, and South Korea). But with some Democrats still unconvinced about the Peruvian government's commitments to enforcing labour standards, there may be yet be stumbles as the agreement goes through Congress.

When I last posted on the topic, Republicans and Democrat leaders had stuck a deal to allow the Peru and Panama agreements to be considered if their labour and environmental conditions were strengthened. Amendments were drafted, and swiftly accepted by Peru's congress. A deputation of US representatives was to visit Lima to offer 'technical assistance' to ensure that Peruvian labour and environmental standards were on the road to acceptability.

That visit in August -- where Democrat Charles Rangel met with president Alan Garcia, representatives of all political parties, and labour unions -- produced warm words and grand statements. Garcia said that the agreement could be the start of a 'new New Deal' in international commerce. Rangel opined that it could be a 'flagship' agreement, noting that 'for the first time, workers' rights will be a part of trade agreements -- to be enforced'.

But not everyone was convinced about the Peruvian commitment to improving labour standards. On the campaign trail in 2006, Garcia had promised the elimination of 'services', companies that provide outsourced labour to other businesses. But a year later Garcia had changed his tune, proposing that such companies merely be regulated rather than eliminated. In August the government announced a law would be prepared with the aim of reducing the number of employees contracted through 'services' from 20% to 10% of the workforce.

According to American magazine Inside US Trade, some Democrats are also unimpressed that their concerns about outsourcing and union rights are being addressed through a series of governmental Surpreme Decrees -- which can be modified later -- rather than through the unfinished General Labour Law. The latter is currently stalled after being negotiated over the last five years. The two largest Peruvian labor federations, CGTP and CUT, have sent an open letter to congressional Democrats asking them to vote 'no' to the trade agreement.

Nevertheless, a hearing of the Senate Finance committee on September 11 on the Peru deal met with few objections. The American labour federation AFL-CIO is agnostic about the deal and has decided to neither promote or actively oppose it, but to concentrate their efforts on opposing the Colombia and South Korea agreements. AFL-CIO policy director Thea Lee said that the new labour and environmental conditions "represent significant progress in crucial areas we have fought to achieve for many years".

Political analysts say that 60 to 120 congressional Democrats are likely to vote in favour of the Peru agreement, meaning that it would pass with a considerably more comfortable margin than the Central American FTA, which passed by 2 votes with just 15 Democrats in favour. But after all the twists and turns that have occurred so far, nothing is certain yet.

Categories: free trade, United Statess, Peru, FTA, trade agreement

Fujimori to Be Extradited?

Although it hasn't been officially anounced, Chilean news sources are saying that the Chilean Supreme Court has ruled in favour of extraditing former Peruvian president Alberto Fujimori to Peru to face trial on two charges of human rights abuses and one of corruption.

Chilean daily La Nacion said that judges from the criminal wing of the Supreme Court had voted 3 to 2 in favour of extraditing Fujimori, and claimed that one of the judges had changed his opinion, reversing an earlier majority decision to reject the extradition plea.

An official announcement on the ruling is likely to be made on the 20th or 21st of September.

More to come.

Stop! I'm With APEC

Speaking of the APEC conference, one of the funniest things I've seen in a long time is this video from Australian comedy show The Chaser. The show found that people would be surprisingly accommodating to 'random security checks' in the name of the APEC conference in Sydney. Even when they were in Melbourne.

The Nuclear Option

Around two years ago, I posted my dilettante-ish opinion that nuclear energy would need to be increasingly important if the world is to reconcile the goals of reducing carbon emissions and continuing international economic development.

That view is now firmly in the mainstream, as evidenced by the discussions at the APEC meeting in Sydney last week. Although it's a rare day when a liberal internationalist finds himself more or less in agreement with George W Bush and John Howard, this one groaned at statements by various New Zealand politicans that they would seek to 'water down' references to nuclear energy in a conference statement on climate change.

These comments were seemingly intended for a domestic audience, one that might by now be dwindling. New Zealand's 'anti-nuclear' stance was a flagship, nation-unifying policy in the 80s. But as I said in the previous post, surely that was "more a stroppy assertion of foreign policy independence than a reasoned rejection of nuclear technology".

The climate change declaration negotiated at the APEC meeting ended up being pretty motherhood-and-apple pie, with only 'aspirational' targets set But with the range of political, social and economic situations faced by the APEC countries, it's better than nothing for a week's work. While it's easy to be critical of non-binding targets, it has to be acknowledged that New Zealand and Canada, which ratified the Kyoto Protocol, have done worse at reaching their emissions target than Australia, which didn't.

However, some credit should be given to the New Zealand contingent at APEC for practicing what they preach. New Zealand prime minister Helen Clark was one of the five leaders who arrived on normal commercial flights The others were the prime ministers of Papua New Guinea and Singapore, the chief executive of Hong Kong, and, yes, Peru's austerity-promoting Alan Garcia.

On the other hand, the US contingent brought three special 747s, while they, China and Russia, demanded 'sovereign immunity' for their aircraft, exempting them from being inspected by Australian customs officials. So much for international co-operation.

Categories: APEC, nuclear power, climate change

Policy Good, Implementation Hard

The always-pithy Economist has had a couple of good dispatches recently on Peru. Both deal with the tough challenge facing the administration of Alan Garcia in delivering on his election promise of 'responsible change' to reduce poverty and develop a more inclusive economy.

As much as it was slightly bewildering to an outsider that Peru would elect Garcia again after his disastrous first term in the 1980s, it was hard to argue with most of his stated policies: austerity in central government, devolution of more resources and responsibility to the regions, rationalisation of overlapping social programmes, improvement of education standards, investment in infrastructure such as water and roads, warmer relations with Chile, free trade with the US (with a better deal struck for Peru), and the 'Sierra Exportadora' programme to help link highland farmers with coastal exporters.


The swift move to implement popular actions within the first 100 days, such as cutting his own and other politicans' salaries, suggested that Garcia might actually carry through with an ambitious programme of reform.

But with the best will in the world, turning policies into action can be harder than it looks. The first challenge described in the June 9--15 Economist is actually implementing the infrastructure and poverty reduction programmes. As anyone who has worked in government will tell you, availability of money isn't always the problem-- 'getting it out the door' can be the hardest part. The challenge is to balance the requirements for transparent process, and value for taxpayer dollars, with the need to get a move on.

The Economist reports that of the $1 billion 'investment shock' earmarked for water, roads, school and clinics, only 30% is on track to be spent in the first year. This is largely due to inexperience in local government, and there's apparently been a lot of argument about whether financial controls should be loosened to allow quicker spending. As much as rapid progress is desirable, giving too much scope for corruption in a place with Peru's history may be worse than doing nothing.

The more general challenge, as summed up by the July 28--August 3 Economist, is maintaining the confidence of the population while the benefits of economic growth are gradually distributed more widely. Peru has averaged 5% growth over the last six years -- the steadiest in Latin America. But much of the interior of the country has yet to see any real benefit, and while poverty rates are now slowly coming down, in the some parts of the sierra they have actually got worse.

During July the country was racked by protests, led by the powerful teachers union SUTEP, and there was controversy over a government decree that local government leaders were not allowed to incite or lead protests.

When I lived in Peru, strikes and protests were as regular as a Friday trip to the pub, and it was de rigeur to call for the resignation of president Alejandro Toledo. This was partly due to Toledo himself, who appeared muddling, technocratic, and out of touch. President 'Alan' has all the popular touch you could want -- as even his critics admit -- but a silver tongue is not enough to soothe the frustrations of people facing ongoing hardship. Prior to the earthquake, Garcia's approval ratings had plummeted from a year earlier, especially away from the more prosperous coast.

The real problem is that people in the Peruvian sierra have been poor and excluded for so long; any government is not just dealing with the legacy of the previous administration, but approximately 500 years of social division and neglect. Protest and atagonistic politics, as exemplified by the likes of Ollanta Humala, have become ingrained as the only way to engage.

This creates a vicious circle where people and businesses who do have some chance of making progress are hindered by the disorder and lack of confidence. Hence the attraction of an almost Blair-ist promise of 'responsible change'. But for the large mass of people struggling as much as always, 'responsible' is coming to be seen as a euphemism for 'too slow'.

span class="category">Categories: development, Peru, poverty, Alan Garcia

That's My Piece of Sea

Like grownup siblings still embittered by a childhood dispute, Peru and Chile seem determined to draw out the consequences of the 19th-century War of the Pacific as long as possible.

Domainating the attention of politicians and media at the moment -- especially in Peru -- is the question of the maritime border.

Peru maintains that, while its land border with Chile was set by the Treaty of Arica in 1929, the maritime limits have never been satisfactorily settled. However, Chile says that the maritime border was defined by two fishing treaties signed in 1952 and 1954.

The technical controversy is over whether each country's 200-mile exclusive economic zone should be delimited by the geographical parallel, as agreed in the fishing treaties, or by a bisection of imaginary lines perpendicular to the respective coastlines, as established by the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (see diagram, taken from Wikipedia entry on the topic.)



Peruvian governments have been trying to begin negotiations on the matter since 1986. The Chilean response has always been that the matter is settled by the fishing treaties, so there's nothing to discuss.

In 2005 the Peruvian congress drew up a law to define the 200-mile maritime zone over which it has sovereignty. This included about 38,000 sq km of water currently under Chilean adminstration -- the shaded area in the map.

With no progress possible through diplomatic channels, Peru decided to take the case to the International Court of Justice in The Hague, a decision announced by president Alan Garcia in his discourse to the nation on 28 July this year.

A preparatory step was to draw up a a cartographic map illustrating the area claimed as sovereign by Peru. The map was published in the official daily El Peruano on 12 August, prior to being presented to the United Nations

Chile's response to the publication of the map was one of official surprise and offense, claiming that the map was a unilateral action that 'ignored' the existing treaties. Chilean foreign minister Alejandro Foxley sent a formal note of protest to the Peruvian ambassador and called the Chilean amabassador to Peru back to Santiago for consultation.

But Peruvian representatives responded that there had been plenty of warning of the process that was to be followed, and Chile had been forewarned of publication of the map

Rising tensions were defused when the earthquake struck southern Peru on August 17, and Chile was among the first countries to send aid to the victims.

However on 23 August Foxley further complicated the matter, stating that settlement of long standing Bolivian claims for access to the sea could be prejudiced by Peru's claims. But this was brushed aside by Bolivian president Evo Morales, who said on a visit to the eathquake zone in Pisco that "I know the Peruvian government isn't going to be an obstacle to resolving this matter with Chile".

The whole debate is put into perspective by an entertaining piece of reportage from Rodrigo Barria Reyes of Chilean paper El Mercurio. Barria Reyes describes the fruitless search by a 518-tonne, 33-man Chilean navy vessel for a tiny 4-man Peruvian fishing vessel suspected of entering Chilean-controlled waters without permission.

The main target for Peruvian fisherman from the port of Ilo is the blue shark, whose fins are considered in some Asian markets to have potent aphrodisiac properties To reach international waters where the sharks are abundant, boats have to cross the Chilean-patrolled zone. Those that don't request permission, or fish in Chilean waters, are towed back to Arica where their cargo is dumped and they are fined and deported.

In this case the Peruvian boat was trespassing, but made a quixotic dash back into Peruvian waters before the Chilean navy could catch it. El Mercurio reports that the fisherman braving the high seas in search of shark fins make $600 for a 15-day trip. Meanwhile, Peru has set aside $2 million USD to fight the court case in The Hague.

To an outside observer, it seems incredible how much importance is attached to a patch of ocean. It's appropriate that the El Mercurio article described the tiny fishing boat as 'Lilliputian', because the way in which arcane details of geography are being scrutinised by politicians, lawyers, historians and bloggers in both countries is reminiscent of something from Gullivers Travels.

To be fair, the leaders of both countries have been at pains to stress that border issue is completely separate from the two nations' economic and social relations. Both governments have tricky balancing acts to maintain. Foxley and president Michelle Bachelet need to placate the hawks in opposition who accuse them of having a muddled and over-accommodating foreign policy, while Garcia needs to stay a step ahead of Peruvian nationalists like Ollanta Humala who are always ready to stir up anti-Chilean feeling.

Far more than the material value of the territory itself, the current fuss is a reflection of the place that the War of the Pacific continues to play in both countries' collective psyches. And while it seems to be Peru that continues to obsess over the past, some Chileans argue that there's a lot their country could do to restore good will. In a guest column in La Republica, Chilean journalist and university professor Felipe Bianchi Leiton said that Chile should formally apologise to Peru for selling arms to Ecuador during its border dispute with Peru in 1995 -- when Chile was supposed to be a guarantor of the peace.

He further argued that Chile should return the books stolen from the library of Lima during the War of the Pacific, and give up disputing denomination of origin rights for pisco. Finally, Leiton stated that Chile must accede to the Peruvian request to extradite ex-president Alberto Fujimori to face trial in Peru.

But the effort to make Fujimori face trial is a different question altogether.

Categories: Chile, Peru, maritime border, limite maritimo, Alan Garcia, Evo Morales, Alejandro Foxley

It's About the Governance

The establishment of a commission to lead the reconstruction of eathquake areas of southern Peru hit its first bureaucratic snags almost straight away.

Prior to the Peruvian congress approving the creation of the independent body dubbed 'Forsur', the presidents of two of the three affected regions voiced their objections. President of Ica Romulo Triveño and Huancavelica's Federico Salas argued that Forsur was against the spirit of decentalization policies, and that reconstruction should be managed by regional governments.

Others expressed unease that the business members of the executive council of Forsur would not be considered public servants, and that Forsur would be able to contract directly for goods and services, bypassing normal tendering processes. This, said La Republica, was to 'confuse the emergency stage - - when such a measure is justified -- and reconstruction, which is assessed over three to four years'

At least one blogger also raised concerns about the reconstruction 'tsar', businessman Julio Favre, who sounds something like a Peruvian Bob Jones. Some past quotes:

'If I had to choose between giving work to 60o and saving 4 herons, I'd choose giving work to 600'

'It was really Marxist front organisations that were behind the protest' (speaking about a march against corruption led by Lima's archbishop).

Regarding the reconstruction project, Favre --who will receive no direct remuneration for his role -- said that 'if we follow all the bureaucratic processes we'll be starting the construction in two years, and we want to [finish] it in one year'.

In eventually approving the creation of Forsur on Tuesday evening, Congress struck a compromise. It agreed that Forsur will be able to contract directly for the removal of rubble and rehabilitation of basic infrastructure such as water and drainage, while other, non-emergency contracting will be carried out transparently through an 'abbreviated purchasing mechanism'. The directorship of the independent body will comprise three regional presidents, four provincial mayors, six ministers, and four businessman. It will be based in Ica.

This still didn't satisfy Ica president Triveño, who is planning to present a consitutional claim against the creation of Forsur on the grounds that it replicates the functions of an already-created regional organisation.

Bureaucratic tangles aside, what is happening on the ground to assist people who lost their homes and possessions in the quake?

-- The government will allocate 23 million soles ($7 million USD) to supply warm clothing, food and water for the victims of the quake. This will be managed by the United Nations World Food Programme, which will be in charge of acquiring, packing and delivering the supplies

-- 400 emergency wawa wasis (creches) will be established in the affected zones to look aftter 4,000 children between the ages of three months and four years.

-- Venezuela has sent 200 prefabricated emergency houses, and Chile 100 more

Minister of Labor Susana Pinilla announced that the Construyendo Peru programme, in which people affected by the quake are being temporarily employed to clear up the rubble, is likely to be extended from 8,000 to 12,000 jobs

-- but the Red Cross and Doctors Without Borders say there are still 'dozens' of small rural communities that have not received any aid, 10 days after the quake, and people are sleeping outside without any shelter and barely any food or water

Categories: earthquake, Peru, Pisco, Lima

On With the Reconstruction

The rubble is still being cleared, and 41 bodies haven't yet been found, but plans for reconstruction in the parts of southern Peru hit by last week's earthquake are underway.

On Monday the 20th, Peruvian president Alan Garcia indicated that he would propose the establishment of an independent body charged with leading the reconstruction. He said it would be led by a an "irreprochable person of great industry and decisiveness" who would "movilize all sectors to reconstruct the affected zone".

On Friday 24th, Garcia confirmed that businessman Julio Favre would be the designated leader, working through a committe including local mayors, regional presidents, as well as relevant businesses and their technicians and architects.

The vision as elaborated by the Peruvian president appeared to be one not just of reconstruction but of modernization and transformation. He suggested that as well as erecting properly-designed buildings and infrastructure, the project would double-lane the Ica-Lima highway, and make operational the previously unused port of Pisco.

By Saturday 25,Favre, already denominated the reconstruction "tsar" had put together his project team to lead Forsur (Fondo para la Reconstrucción del Sur), and local reporters accompanied him and Pisco mayor to inspect an area of terrain to the south of the city where it was intended the rebuilding would start.

President Garcia announced that Forsur would have available a budget of 260 million soles ($85 million USD), and would also construct housing for 'one or two thousand people'.

Categories: earthquake, Peru, Pisco, Lima

After the Earthquake

Amidst the inevitable chaos, neglect of people living off the beaten track, and one or two engregious incidents of corrupt behaviour, Peru appeared to do a relatively effective job of responding to last week's earthquake

Three days after the tremor, on Saturday the 18th, local news sources reported a general sense of panic and desperation in Pisco and Ica, where people were living in improvised shelters made from sticks and sheets of plastic.

There was also widespread insecurity. As was seen in New Orleans, actual criminal acts mixed with desperate quake victims looting ruins and breaking into empty shops to find food and supplies, heightening the sense of lawlessness . There were reports of organised attacks on convoys bringing emergency help to the area, and when trucks arrived most were set upon with desperation by people who were ravenous for food and water.

In response, the government increased the number of military units in the Pisco area from 400 to 1,000, sending army, navy and air force units in addition to more than 2,000 police. The Minister of Defense, Allan Wagner, reported that by Saturday morning the assaults on vehicles bringing aid had been 'neutralized'. But reports of looting still drifted in.

On Sunday 19th, Peru's civil defence agency Indeci announced that 503 people were dead, 1,042 injured, and 33,939 families had suffered damaged or destroyed homes. The agency also reported that 2,800 tonnes of clothing, food, shelter, and other goods had been delivered. Statistics varied: the regional president of Ica, Rómulo Triveño, claimed that 45,000 homes had been damaged or destroyed in Ica alone, affecting 253,000 people .

Seventy-two hours after the earthquake, electricity and water were being restored, though this was a slow task in the areas of Pisco and Ica most affected by the quake. In Pisco, where less than 10% of the city had electricity, emergency and medical operations were being powered by generators.

Other Peruvian regions and municipalities rushed to organise aid, and the National Stadium in Lima was the designated centre for collection of donated goods. Thousands of limeños headed to the stadium to give clothing, tinned food and useful equipment, while at least 500 volunteers worked round the clock to collect and pack the donations.

The Peruvian earthquake was also a popular international cause, and offers of help flooded in. In addition to the countries that had already given help, by Monday Mexico, Ecuador, Panama, Brazil and Italy had also dispatched aid. Chile sent further assistance, while Argentina set up an 'air bridge' to Pisco. The Mormon church (with 430,000 Peruvian members) promised a 747 loaded with supplies from Salt Lake City while the Pope himself sent $200,000.

But for people off the beaten track, help was slow to arrive. Reporters from La Republica found that in the settlement of El Bosque, just 15 minutes from the centre of Pisco, people complained that after three days they had not yet received any assistance. On the Wari-Liberatadores highway inland from Pisco to Huancavelica, settlements where the majority of dwellings were destroyed had not seen any help by Sunday.

President of the Council of Minister Jorge del Castillo justified the lack of help for outlying areas, saying that it was necessary to 'prioritize the places worst affected by the earthquake'. Some blame could be directed to the authorities for not having better systems of distribution. But people's inability to reach central areas where aid was being distributed, or insecurity about leaving their few remaining belongings for fear of robbery, reflect everyday reality in Peru.

Meanwhile, the government was looking ahead to future issues of reconstruction. Minister of Labor Susan Pinilla announced on Saturday 18 that a programme called Construyendo Peru would be set up to begin reconstruction work. People affected by the quake would be given priority for the 4,000 jobs, the first week's wages paid in advance.

With the need to spend large amounts of aid money quickly, there's always a risk of misappropriation and corruption. Minister del Castillo announced that the government would establish 'mechanisms of transparency' to keep clear account of national and international aid.

Of course, no mechanism can prevent the dishonesty of individuals, as was seen when a Civil Defense employee in the Lima barrio of La Victoria was caught with half a tonne of donated goods that she'd taken home for 'safe keeping'.

In the local media there were many critics of the government response as delayed, disorganized and haphazard. To be fair, some of the defects which exacerbated the quake's effects -- precarious building construction, ancient water and electricity infrastructure, isolation of people in peripheral areas -- are chronic ones that can't be blamed on any one administation.

But the most notable feature was the outpouring of good will and solidarity. Temporarily, the different sectors of Peruvian society -- central and local government, private companies, civil society groups and individuals -- were united at least in the wish to alleviate the suffering of those less fortunate.

If only, as several columnists wrote, that attitude could be sustained past times of crisis.

Categories: earthquake, Peru, Pisco, Lima

More Daily Minion

As promised, there's a new story on the Daily Minion front page -- "Republicans May Finally Have Suitably Charismatic, Conservative Candidate" and a new 'brief' -- "Cullen Promises Special Treat for Well-behaved New Zealanders". Hopefully there'll be a few more stories and updates coming soon.

Earthquake in Peru

It's always a worrying sign when the death toll rises rapidly. The first news I heard about the 7.9 Richter scale Peruvian earthquake was several hours after the event, and already early news reports of deaths in single figures had blown out to 330 in later reports. It now looks as though the death toll will be around 500, while an estimated 17,000 people have been left homeless.

Worst hit were the towns of Ica,Pisco, Chinca and Cañete, three--five hours to the southeast of Lima. The majority of casualties appear to have occurred when buildings simply collapsed on top of their occupants.

It's worth checking out this video clip (click to play, audio in spanish) to get some idea of just how badly Pisco has been damaged. The piles of rubble make it look like a particularly war-torn part of Chechnya. Reports say that between 60 to 80 percent of the city has been destroyed. The Guardian has a good summary of events, and some geological background to the quake.

Injured people are being ferried by 'air bridge' to Lima hospitals, and aid and supplies are coming in from the government, Red Cross and private companies. International agencies have already given or offered $40 million of aid. Chile was one of the first countries to assist, sending a Hercules transport plane, while Spanish and Bolivian rescuers helped to look for survivors, and Colombia was reported to have discpatched a ship with supplies to the port of Pisco. Peruvian president Alan Garcia, never one to miss an opportunity to make a wider political point, said that "this gesture shows the brotherly relations of Peru and Chile despite differences over the maritime border".

Sadly, there have also been numerous reports of criminal gangs taking advantage of the darkness in Chincha and Ica to loot and attack houses. It is thought that prisoners that escaped from the Tambo de Mora penal facility during the earthquake may be responsible for some of the criminal activity. Frightened citizens rang TV and radio stations describing armed gangs roaming the streets. President Garcia has announced that he will send an additional 600 police to the affected areas.

Supplies including water, food, medicine and tents have been dribbling in along damaged highways. TV cameras -- always efficiently deployed -- showed people in Pisco living a post-apocalypse reality, huddled on dark streets in blankets and improvising communal meals. But they were still better off than those in isolated rural areas, who were reported to still be with out assistance, 48 hours after the quake.

As terrible a tragedy as this, perhaps the real story is that a complete catastrophe was only just avoided. In Lima, buildings wobbled and swayed, leaving residents shaken but largely unharmed. The city has close to 10 million people, many in dense concentrations of poorly-constructed brick, plaster and concrete. Had the quake been centred a bit further to the north, the results woud have been scarcely imaginable.

Categories: earthquake, Peru, Pisco, Lima

Are Policy Analysts Causing Inflation?

As with most Anglo-Saxon cultures, New Zealanders have a strong anti-intellectual streak and an ambivalent relationship with the State. It's therefore unsurprising that little respect should be accorded to the role of the public servant, and in some circles 'bureaucrat' is practically a swear word.

The country's most successful comedy show, Gliding On, was based on lampooning the (lack of) activities in a Wellington government office. To this day, in a very different political and economic environment, it's still an a priori truth that the 'pdf pushers' in Wellington are overpaid, unproductive drain on the taxpayer that contribute nothing to society's well being.

But it would seem a bridge too far to blame public servants for causing inflation and raising mortgage rates, right? Not according to Stuff columnist Bernard Hickey , who appears to claim just that. Hickey aspires to be "provocative and unconventional [and] question the consensus". Here, however, he is satisfied with peddling an exaggerated version of conventional wisdom.

His column is a classic case of bait-and-switch. He has a larger, ideological claim to make (government spending is contributing to inflation and should be reigned in) but spends most of the time appealing to kneejerk contempt for bureaucrats by making cheap points about advisors and policy analysts – whose salaries in reality form only a tiny proportion of total government spending

The core part of his post is simply listing the jobs for analysts and advisors, which by definition can't be adding any value (question: if they were, how would we know?) He is shocked to find 29 jobs listed in the Dominion Post for such roles. Are these to replace people who have left, or are they new jobs? We don't know, because his assumption is simply that 29 must be 29 too many.

He then skips to a Trade Me search of government jobs and find that – horror – 22 are offering salaries more than $80,000. Twenty-two out of how many? If we run his search again across all salary bands, it turns out that this is 22 out of 152 government jobs – about 15 percent. And 84 (approximately 60 percent) are in the $0—50,000 category. I would hazard a guess that this is actually quite similar to the NZ labour force as a whole.

The only piece of hard data that supports his larger argument is that public sector wages have grown faster (20.6 percent over seven years) than in the private sector (15.6 percent)
But -- having focussed the attention on analysts and advisors -- he conveniently ignores the fact that the 'public sector' includes all government-funded occupations, including doctors, nurses, teachers, police, social workers et al. Investigation will almost certainly show that these have absorbed the great majority of extra expenditure.

Of course, Hickey will probably still want to argue that spending has grown too much and too fast. But he then has to acknowledge that these are things people have actually (repeatedly) voted for.

His second graph does show a steady increase in the core public service (bureaucrats). One could argue that ANY organisation that expands its operations will see a proportionate expansion in administrative functions, and areas like research and analysis (which in the private sector is often considered to add value). But even if we assume that all 40,000 bureaucrats are fundamentally useless and unproductive, their totality still constitutes less than 2 percent of the NZ labor force (around 2.1 million). This 2 percent is causing inflation? Come on...

The post includes a set of colourful graphs presumably intended to add intellectual rigour. But this is the most dishonest part of all. Increases in public spending and bureaucrat numbers since 2000 are compared to a long steady decline in NZ's relative economic standing against the OECD, US, and Australia. The problem is that this graph starts in 1970, and the big decline is 1970-90 – i.e. in NO way caused by current policies. In fact, if you actually look at the bit of the graph that is post-2000, the lines are more or less flat – indicating that in recent times NZ has held its own, especially against the OECD average and the US. Not bad, especially with all those bureaucrats weighing us down...

In a future post, I'll discuss what the motives might be for the type of claim peddled by HIckey. Meanwhile, the popular view of public servants as unproductive parasites is, well, pretty unfalsifiable. But let's be clear -- the suggestion that they're somehow responsible for New Zealand's macroeconomic difficulties is nonsense.

Return of the Daily Minion

After much neglect over the last six months, I've finally added a new piece on the Daily Minion. Not only that, but I'm planning an entirely new edition of the front page. There are at least four more stories already in the pipeline, at least some of which I hope at least some people will find amusing. The badly out-of-date bits will be banished back to the archives.

All this isn't going to happen for a few weeks yet, but do expect to see a couple of updates on this site, most likely featuring road-trip pics of the South Island in winter (assuming availability of image-editing).

The Many Roads to Development

I've spotted several good articles or reviews recently on economic development. I'm just going to link to one here, but there's others which I'll summarise in further posts.

Together, they represent part of a growing body of opinion against the Wall Street Journal-style platitude that developing countries just need enough 'free market reforms' to become wealthy and stable. Even many US thinkers are now seeing this 1990s-esque triumphalism as at best simplistic and unbalanced, at worst deeply hypocritical given the histories of wealthy countries themselves.

What's interesting is the increasing range of more-or-less centrist economists, historians and journalists making many of the same points as Eduardo Galeano's The Open Veins of Latin America -- though without quite the colorful, stirring prose.

A particularly succint and insightful piece is a critical review by former New Yorker writer James Surowiecki of Indur M. Goklany's The Improving State of the World: Why We're Living Longer, Healthier, More Comfortable Lives on a Cleaner Planet.

Goklany's thesis is one that Surowiecki doesn't fundamentally disagree with (and neither do I): the onset of industrialization in the eighteenth century and the application of technology through practices loosely describable as 'capitalism' have delivered unprecedented benefits to humanity. Not only has economic growth made us all wealthier, but it's allowed us breathing space to care about the environment enough to arrest and reverse its degradation.

Or as bluntly summed up by New Zealand National Party environment spokesperson Nick Smith at a debate I attended, 'if you want to be clean, first you've got to be rich'

It's the intellectually honest starting point from which I wish more of the environmentalist millenariasts and 'smash capitalism' activists would start: those of us born in the Western world in the last few decades are comfortably the luckiest people ever to have lived. Our ability to become passionate about issues beyond scraping together our next meal is substantially dependent on the system that we are critiquing.

What Surowiecki does reject is the faith in economic growth as some irresistible, almost Marxian historical force that inevitably delivers human and environmental improvments.

This greatly understimates the historical struggles to win a share of industrial wealth for ordinary working people, improve health, and address pollution and other environmental problems. In many cases, real gains have only been achieved though those deeply unsexy measures -- governmental regulation and intervention.

Such faith also takes insufficiently seriously the fact that large parts of the world -- the so-called 'developing' countries -- have not benefited anything like as much from the industrial age as the 'Western' nations.

True, as Surowieci acknowledges, they've experienced significant advances in areas such as health and longevity, thanks to the 'trickle-down' dispersement of improvents in medicine, engineering and agriculture, while remaining relatively poor. But there's also Galeano's case to be answered that the very success of the Western nations was partly on the back of the dominance and exploitation of the 'developing' world.

What's most irritating is the use by neoliberal theorists of the broad-brush historical view to evangelise for something they glibly call 'free markets'. Boiled down, it turns out all anyone needs to do is apply a set of formulas derived from Milton Friedman and distilled by the IMF (reduce government spending, deregulate, privatize, drop trade barriers, etc), and hey presto!, everything will get better.

In support of this case, free-market fundamentalists like to point out that, in the last 30 or 40 years while their ideas have held sway, even aggregate global inequality has reduced. But the obvious riposte (made by Surowiecki) is that almost all of this is due to the success of China and India. The approach of both these countries has been heterodox, in their own time, and on their own terms. Meanwhile, the parts of the world that have followed IMF prescriptions -- including much of Latin America and Africa -- have stagnated or only made painfully slow advances.

Even paragons of development through economic othodoxy such as Chile and Botswana show divergence from the formula. The engine of Chile's development -- copper -- remained under state control even during the time of Pinochet. And Botswana is one of the world's largest producers of diamonds. These two countries may just be examples of not stuffing up the mixed blessing of being resource-rich, rather than demonstrating the transformational magic of a narrow set of economic policies.

In short, there may be certain broad policies that are necessary (but not sufficient) for economic success. But achieving this is a complex business, more dependent on the specific historical, social and geographic circumstances of a country than any formula from a textbook. And the improvement of human and environmental well-being is something that must be fought for in its own right, not simply a slag-like byproduct of the economic growth engine.

The summation comes best from Surowiecki himself:

The fact that every country's experience is different does not mean that there are not deeper truths to be uncovered by looking at the experience of the world as a whole. But the truths thus far uncovered are relatively few in number and often limited in impact. So, yes, free trade is a good thing, subsidies to agriculture and official corruption are bad things, and so on. And policymakers should be aggressive in implementing those practices and policies that there is a good reason to think will work. But they also need to be cautious about taking theoretical pronouncements for reality, and they should be pragmatists rather than evangelists. After decades of misplaced certainty, it may be time to recognize the limits of our own knowledge -- at least if we want the state of the world to continue improving.

From my own unschooled point of view, I might posit the 'general truth' that one of the key things a country needs to get ahead is the autonomy and control to decide and implement what works for them -- rather than being forced into a straitjacket set of textbook-derived policies that may be unhelpful or even counter-productive. That would be close to my definition of 'freedom'.

Categories: free trade, economic development, Latin America, Africa, environment, labor

One Step Closer

The Peru-United States free trade agreement, on which I've previously posted here, here and here, moved one step further along last week, but now will probably not be passed by the US congress before the end of the year.

On Wednesday 27 June, the Peruvian congress passed amendements to the original agreement which had been negotiated by US Democratic leaders with the Republican administration. But according to Bloomberg News, Democrats have now put off voting on the Peru (and Panama) agreements until those countries 'revamp their laws to comply with [the amendments'] new labor and environment standards'.

The final text of the amendments had been agreed only a few days before the Peruvian vote. Activists who had previously criticised the lack of transparency of the deal were not impressed with the results. Consumer-rights group Public Citizen issued a press release stating that:

The legal text of changes to several Bush-negotiated NAFTA expansion agreements released today confirms that the essential changes listed by labor unions, environmental, consumer, faith and family farm groups as necessary to avoid their opposition to the free trade agreements were not made.

Frustratingly, neither the groups making criticisms nor the official sources such as the US Trade Representative's Office have posted the actual legislative text. I've posted a comment on blogger David Sirota's website, asking him to link to the full text.

Nevertheless, it appears a majority of the Democratic caucus agrees with the criticisms, which is what has caused the decision to delay the vote. According to the news feed, 'it is now planned that Rep. Charles Rangel, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, will lead a delegation of lawmakers to those countries in August to help them with the changes'.

It's unclear how this 'help' will be given, nor what actual legislative changes Peru and Panama will have to make. The intentions may be good, but it all seems a little overbearing and patronising.

The terms of the debate also remain US-centric. While most of the attention from the American NGOs and grassroots Democrats has been on labour and environmental standards (with some attention to the onerous intellectual property requirements of the original agreement) there's been very little mention of what is probably the biggest concern in Peru -- the destablising effect of the agreement on small agricultural producers. No US politican has suggested any strategy to mitigate or assist with those issues.

As an interim measure while things are sorted out, the US Congress extended its unilateral trade preferences for Andean nations (also including Colombia, Ecuador and Bolivia) for another eight months.

Meanwhile, agreements were signed with Panama, South Korea, and Colombia in a last-minute flurry of activity before expiration of President Bush's 'fast-track' authority to develop trade agreements without congressional input. The Panama agreement looks set to follow a similar course to Peru's, but Congress is unlikely to consider the Colombia one in the near future, while the there is broad opposition to the South Korea deal, including from Hilary Clinton.

Then, when the Bush fast-track authority expired at midnight on 30 June, the Democrat-controlled congress refused to renew it, meaning that the US is unlikely to start any new trade negotiations until at least after the November 2008 presidential elections.

Predictably, the likes of the Heritage Foundation lamented the imminent disappearance of fast-track authority, asseting that:

Freer trade policies have created a level of competition in today's open market that leads to innovation and better products, higher-paying jobs, new markets, and increased savings and investment...

...These agreements play a critical role in maintaining American competitiveness and economic prosperity, spreading freedom around the world and fostering economic development in poor countries.

However, there's a growing body of opinion from many sides of the ideological spectrum that such statements are, at best, gross oversimplifcations. This is something I'll explore in some future posts.

Categories: free trade, United Statess, Peru, FTA, trade agreement

Party Politics and International Relations

A couple of weeks ago, Simon, Noam and I decided to have a party. No particular reason, just felt like the right thing to do. Unlike at our previous party, there was no piano-playing at 2:00am -- which would have pleased the neighbours -- but a generally good time was had by all.

Later we worked out that there were representatives from at least twelve other countries besides New Zealand at the party: China, England, India, Iran, Israel, Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Malaysia, Peru, Sweden, and Uruguay. And then there was the unfortunate absence (for various reasons) of good friends or recent or future visitors from Australia, Colombia, Ireland, Russia, and the United States.

The cosmopolitan nature of the gathering was hardly a surprise, given that we live in Wellington and work in the academic and government sectors. But it made me think of an interesting twist on the 'pointy-heads and bureaucrats who suck up our taxpayer dollars' rant that predominates in New Zealand.

Sure, we might be unproductive, office-bound stuffed shirts who don't milk cows or drive trucks and therefore don't contribute to the economy. But given that less than ten per cent of New Zealand businesses export, and our participation in the world economy has actually dropped in the last ten years (unlike all other OECD countries), if it wasn't for academia and the public service, would we even have any international relations?.

Photos from the party:

The early arrivals sat around for a civilized chat.



But as always, the action eventually moved to party central: the kitchen.


My Peruvian friends were convinced to leave their Kiwi husbands at home for a quarter share of a 350 ml bottle of the legendary Inka Kola that I had smuggled back from their home country.


Ginny completes the double of making it into the society pages of the Dominion Post and South America Bidsta in the same month.


The Lithuanian contingent were among the most festive.


But what did Noam see lurking behind the photographer....?

I Wasn't Making It Up

A study by the International Labour Organization of 50 countries indicates that more than a quarter of the world's workforce works more than the ideal maximum of 48 hours.

Top of the list of the most overworked countries is...Peru. Yes, despite the popular perception of layabout Latinos, the study found that 50.9 percent of Peruvians work more than 48 hours per week.

Well it's striking that Peru is in very first place, I'm unsurprised that it's there or thereabouts. As I've described before, long, arduous working hours are the lot of the majority in Peru. The working week is six days long, with very few exceptions. And the most common work day is 10--12 hours in length, rather than eight. For those that must reply on informal work to get by, the day is as long as it takes to scrape together the required handful of soles.

The BBC report on the study says that:

The ILO blames the growth of service industries, such as tourism and transport, plus an expansion in informal working arrangements, for the excess of global working hours.

In general this is probably true. In the case of Peru specifically, another important reason is, ironically, the sheer lack of jobs. People who are employed in any kind of stable arrangement consider themselves fortunate, and are not in a position to demand kinder working hours or conditions. And many people are employed by small businesses that are themselves struggling to get by in the oversupplied marketplace. The hours worked by employees are driven by the hours the business needs to operate to break even.

This rather puts into context the concerns about labour standards in the trade agreement that Peru has recently negotiated with the United States. As reported in a previous post, a key element of the compromise reached by Democrat legislators and the Republican executive to allow the agreement to pass was a requirement for parties to ratify ILO labor standards. This didn't satisfy many grassroots Democrats, who angrily questioned whether the standards will be enforceable.

But while the criticisms were at times coated with a veneer of internationalism, they were, understandably, really about US internal politics and concerns. Not a lot of the critical reaction was motivated by an appreciation of Peru's position (or that or Colombia or Panama, about which I know a lot less).

Now, I fully agree that it's a good thing to have labour standards written into agreements. Jobs created by trade should be decent ones, and the right of workers to share in the benefits of increased commerce should be fundamental.

But Peru has already signed up to all the ILO principles and standards, and the general ideological mood -- unlike in the US -- is that they are fully desirable. For the meantime, however, these are less relevant than the need for more and better jobs.

It's true that the US State Department found that in Peru the existing labour regulations are poorly enforced, up to 30,000 people do forced labour, and tens of thousands of children are working.

But all this happens in an environment where people feel they have little choice. The government could certainly be more active in enforcing the employment regulations. But there's little it can do about the children sent off to wander the streets at all hours selling sweets and shining shoes. It's not multinational corporations exploiting these kids, but their unemployed mothers sending them out to help ends meet (you might ask where the fathers are, but that's another story altogether).

Peru is not Colombia, where trade union leaders have suffered the unfortunate setback of being frequently murdered (in part due to the real and imagined connections of trade union leaders with the FARC). Peruvian unions do exist, exert some muscle, and from time to time have some success in winning concessions. There's no question that the lot of miners, for example, could be greatly improved. But the most arduous conditions and worst abuses are suffered by those who can't count on a stable job, or have to work for themselves. I can't give you the stats at this point, but I would guess that the physical risks faced regularly by a Lima taxi driver would make a New York policeman blanche.

Only when there more genuine, decent sources of employment will the negotiation of a fair balance between employer and employee become the critical issue. Finding ways to raise productivity, add value to primary products and improve internal communications and infrastructure is vital to development. All these things happen in the presence of the kind of opportunities offered by stable access to large markets, which is what a trade agreement secures.

While countries like Peru shouldn't have to suck eggs and accept conditions as over-reaching as the intellectual property requirements in the original US deal, there would be very few who would argue that they'd be better off with no trade deal at all, or with an indefinitely stagnated one. In the absence of a trade agreement, extractive industries like mining and forestry (not to mention the drug trade) will carry along happily, there being generally few trade barriers to raw materials. And well-meaning people will continue to have little chance of influencing the labour standards in those industries.

Activists might beat up on Democrat leaders like Nancy Pelosi and Charles Rangel for 'selling out' to the Republicans, but themselves have few constructive suggestions for how to support responsible development in countries like Peru. Say what you like about Pelosi and Rangel, but you could credit them with being influenced at least in a minor way by what is really needed for Peru to improve the living standards of its people.


Categories: free trade, United Statess, Peru, FTA, trade agreement, labor

Mercado Santa Anita: After the Fall

In the end the outcome was perhaps the best possible alternative to potential tragedy -- farcical anticlimax. Three police bulldozers broke down the back entrance of the Mercado Santa Anita, and in flooded the more than 1,000 police officers that had gathered outside in a show of overwhelming force.

First in were the the stormtrooper-like 'robocops', with their 10 kilos of electric shock-delivering body armour, who were later fawned over at length by the female TV reporters. Amidst a few salvos of teargas, and some half-hearted attempts by the occupiers to set fire to their stalls, it took just 20 minutes to clear the compound.

The tubthumping leader Fernandino Nieto, who had promised 'rivers of blood', shaved off his moustache, slicked back his hair, and tried to fade off admidst the exodus. But he was recognised by police and detained.

Official sources were eager to talk up the violent defenses that the occupiers had apparently been preparing. La Republica's reporter Alfredo Pomared put it in context with a nice piece of subtle scepticism:

As evening fell, Minister Alva Castro showed the supposed weapons that the occupiers had intended to use in their defense: grenades, shotguns, revolvers, and molotov cocktails, among others. What's certain is that La Republica was the only print media in the compound at dawn, and after a long walk, was witness to the discovery by the police of a bucket of water mixed with chili pepper and vinegar, two swords, and an air rifle for hunting small animals.

In an effort which doubled as a public relations exercise, a wave of female police officers were sent to 'rescue' the children who had been stuck in the market. Some were taken to hospital, although it was unclear how their need was assessed. It was originally intended to detain and charge the parents, but this plan was thankfully later scrapped after the judge ruled that the children hadn't, after all, been used as 'human shields'.

As the bedraggled occupants streamed away from the area clutching the few things they managed to salvage (blankets or a radio here; a live chicken there) the TV reporters from 90 Segundos were keen to ensure they didn't escape without having it rubbed in. "What did you manage to take with you?" and "are there any children?", they asked. Some people, visibly upset, shouted "don't film!" and pushed at the camera, actions which were noted as confirming their uncouthness.

With the market cleared, hard-working agricultural wholesalers in the chaotic, overcrowded La Parada area of central Lima, where around 80 percent of the city's produce is sold, were looking forward to moving to new improved premises in Santa Anita.

For those who had been occupying the premises , it was a different story. A rag-tag group clutching their few remaining possessions found their way to a small park in the barrio of Ate Vitarte. There they huddled on what was the coldest night of the year, and the next morning struggled to scrape together breakfast for the children.

Some of the Santa Anita refugees had only arrived in the market a few months previously and were bewildered by what had happened. Many had wanted to leave the compound previously, but had been prohibited from doing so by their 'leaders'. One man with a face full of woe explained how he had sold his dwelling in the countryside and paid land pirate Herminio Porras 5,000 soles ($1,600 USD) for his spot in the market.

With many residents of the area around the park quickly growing impatient with the invasion of their neighbourhood, the refugees from Santa Anita were left facing, like so many others in Peru, an uncertain and perilous future.

Categories: mercado Santa Anita, Peru, Lima